WORLD, Page 60EAST GERMANYTrading PlacesAs Egon Krenz succeeds the deposed Honecker, he seems willing totinker with the system but not revamp it. Will that be enough?By Jill Smolowe
Vacationing in the northern industrial city of Rostock last
month, Egon Krenz decided to attend a soccer match. The outing may
have been business as much as pleasure: as the Politburo member who
handled youth affairs, Krenz also oversaw the country's sports
programs. Soon after Krenz settled into his seat, an announcement
blared over the public address system that the politician was in
the stadium. Cheers and applause? Hardly. The fans booed lustily.
Those jeers apparently never reached East Berlin. Last week
party elders demonstrated just how out of touch they are with the
masses by awarding Krenz the country's top political trophy. Erich
Honecker, for 18 years the country's unsmiling, unbudging leader,
was relieved of -his posts as head of state, Communist Party chief
and chairman of the National Defense Council. Krenz, his protege,
was elevated to all three positions. Technically, the 77-year-old
Honecker resigned, citing the poor health that has plagued him
since he underwent gallbladder surgery last August. But few East
Germans doubted that Honecker had been pushed aside by a leadership
increasingly nervous about the continuing exodus of refugees to the
West and the growing clamor of the stay-behinds for reform at home.
At the same time, the two Politburo members in charge of the
economy and mass media also lost their posts, signaling that a more
extensive housecleaning might be under way.
Krenz, who had long been expected to succeed his mentor, will
get no honeymoon, since the change at the top does not alter the
crisis down below. Given Krenz's hard-line convictions, there is
little expectation that he will be the leader who will guide East
Germany along the path toward social and economic reform. Krenz may
turn out to be only a transitional figure, put in place, like the
Soviet Union's Konstantin Chernenko, to warm the chair for a more
visionary thinker. "The real reformers will take over power in the
next six to twelve months," predicts Wolfgang Seiffert, a former
adviser in the East German Communist Party who now teaches at West
Germany's Kiel University. Others see in Krenz the possibility of
a Yuri Andropov -- someone who appeals to conservatives but
recognizes the need for change.
Analysts were united at least in this: Krenz is no Mikhail
Gorbachev. True, Gorbachev was no Gorbachev when he ascended to
power almost five years ago. But while Gorbachev was aligned early
on with reformist factions within the Communist Party, Krenz is
indelibly marked as Honecker's creation. The son of a tailor, Krenz
joined the Young Pioneers in his early youth and became a
full-fledged Communist Party member by 18. He spent three years at
the party academy in Moscow, then returned home to rise quickly
through the party ranks. He has been a member of the party's
Central Committee since 1973. A decade later, he joined the
Politburo, gradually assuming responsibility for both youth affairs
and the country's security apparatus.
At 52, Krenz is the youngest member of the Politburo. He is
also among the members most widely distrusted and reviled by
citizens. Rumors circulate about both his drinking and his health.
"This man is a technician of power, a man of the central party
machine," said Fred Oldenburg, a senior analyst with the Federal
Institute for East European and International Studies in Cologne.
East Germans mockingly call Krenz a "professional youth" because
he has continued to dabble in youth affairs despite his age,
organizing and attending rock concerts that are intended to pacify
restless youngsters. A West German television crew, interviewing
East Germans at random the day of Krenz's appointment, turned up
evidence of the popular disdain. "He's one of the concrete heads,"
said a young man. Remarked an elderly woman: "They should all step
down and let new blood in."
Krenz is also regarded with suspicion by many because of his
connections with the Stasi, or secret police. Few citizens seem
persuaded that Krenz had a true change of heart when he ordered
police forces to stand back during the demonstrations that continue
to spread like a brush fire, last week drawing 100,000 people into
the streets of Leipzig. Many point instead to his comments on
recent trips to China and West Germany, during which he expressed
support for the Beijing leadership's crackdown on the pro-democracy
movement.
Krenz may face resistance within ruling circles as well. One
source who has good Soviet connections and contacts within East
European diplomatic circles said, "Krenz is engaged in a deep power
struggle because some of the district party bosses were against
him. The Central Committee was not unanimously for him." Still,
Krenz is regarded by the other 20 members of the Politburo as the
best they have to offer. Krenz, who is more animated and garrulous
than Honecker, is also better attuned to the television age. He
ordered up a camera crew to record his exit from the Central
Committee session at which he was promoted, and six hours after
Honecker's resignation, Krenz addressed the nation on live TV.
His words gave the country's fledgling opposition little cause
for optimism. While Krenz called for a "new course" and "dialogue
with all the citizens of our country," he also made it clear that
he had no intention of bringing any of the freshly organized reform
groups into the dialogue. "Our society already has enough
democratic forums in which different interests from various parts
of the population can express themselves," he said. While Krenz
acknowledged that "problems in recent months had not been
sufficiently assessed," he stated that the party would maintain
firm control. "Socialism," he said, "is not negotiable." His only
conciliatory gesture was a hint that travel restrictions might be
relaxed. At the same time, he encouraged East Germans to stay home,
and admitted that the flight of 135,000 citizens this year was "a
draining of a lifeblood" that amounted to "a human, political and
economic loss."
The next day, however, Krenz went on a good-guy offensive that
favorably impressed his critics. He was shown on television
chatting, Gorbachev-style, with factory workers in East Berlin. He
let it be known that he had traveled to Leipzig on Oct. 9 to ensure
personally that police forces did not confront demonstrators. And
Krenz met with leaders of the Protestant Church, around which the
opposition movement is grouped. Later, Bishop Werner Leich, head
of the church, said the meeting left him hopeful that Krenz would
open a dialogue with all segments of the society. Says Oldenburg:
"It looks to me like Mr. Krenz is trying to be more flexible than
we had expected."
Others were not ready to give Krenz the benefit of the doubt.
"It makes one fearful when, again, one person is taking on the
three positions formerly held by Honecker," said Barbel Bohley, a
co-founder of New Forum, the largest of the new reform groups. The
night after Krenz's walkabout, more than 20,000 people demonstrated
in Dresden, signaling that the pressure for democratic reform would
continue. West German politicians greeted Krenz's appointment
cautiously. Chancellor Helmut Kohl said, "Reforms cannot be
restricted to a mere replacement of persons." Oskar Lafontaine, a
deputy chairman of the Social Democratic Party and Krenz's host
during the East German's first visit to West Germany last June, was
also wary. "He has a conciliatory approach and friendly manners,
but is tough as nails when it comes to substance," he said.
In Hungary the state-run newspaper Magyar Nemzet predicted that
Krenz would be only a transitional leader. But news of Krenz's
appointment was eclipsed by the Hungarian Parliament's decision,
in a vote of 333 to 5, to embrace substantial revisions in the
country's constitution. The changes include not only "the values
of both bourgeois democracy and democratic socialism" but also the
country's name: the People's Republic of Hungary is now the
Republic of Hungary. The reaction from Moscow was more generous,
as Gorbachev sent a telegram of congratulation to Krenz. But the
news agency TASS pointedly noted that Gorbachev encouraged Krenz
to be "sensitive to the demands of the times." Interestingly,
beyond the quiet message of change that he urged upon Honecker when
he visited East Germany three weeks ago, Gorbachev appeared to have
had no direct hand in the shake-up.
The most optimistic prognosis is that Krenz will navigate a
minimalist course that will be enough to restore, at least
temporarily, a degree of stability. But in fast-changing Eastern
Europe, no leader can afford to tread water for too long. Honecker
tried -- and was drowned by the tidal wave of events. His record
actually boasts some accomplishments. Honecker had two chief aims:
to nurture his country's industry and to legitimate the existence
of the German Democratic Republic. In both endeavors, Honecker
largely succeeded. But when the situation demanded that he broaden
his agenda and introduce political reforms as well, Honecker was
too calcified to muster any flexibility. If Krenz aims to ensure
a kinder legacy, he would do well to heed the cry building in the
